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Deficit, Smeficit: Sox Proving No Lead’s Too LargeApril 24th, 2008
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Just call them “The Comeback Kids.”
No, I’m not talking about John McCain and Hillary Clinton, though their individual runs for the presidency have also prevailed over seemingly insurmountable odds. But rather, I’m talking about the American League’s best team, record-wise and, perhaps, otherwise, through the first four weeks of the still very young season.
Or maybe “The Cardiac Kids” would suit them better. Not sure, but considering some of the key igniters behind the Red Sox recent barrage of late-inning magic, the noun ‘kids’ seems more than apropos.
Off to a start filled with more last-minute drama than an episode of Lost, the team from the Back Bay has quashed, in convincing fashion, any worries of a slow start due to the aftereffects of an opening-morning excursion through Japan and an April schedule chocked full of playoff contenders.
But despite the 15-8 record, you can hardly call the Red Sox play on the field dominant. More like opportunistic and absurdly resilient, bordering on miraculous.
Don’t get me wrong; it’s not to say they’ve been lucky—ever since going the way of Snake Plissken and escaping from Toronto after a weekend nightmare in early April, the Boston Nine-plus have been rolling through the competition … just not in a—let’s say—Arizona Diamondbacks-like manner.
Breaking Out The Calculators: Run Differential Meets Pythagoras
The D-Backs (through Wednesday) have scored 128 runs and yielded only 79 tallies to their opposition—good for a run differential of 49—whereas the Red Sox (through Wednesday) have plated an AL-leading 123 runs but allowed 112 runs to score—a run differential of just 11.
So, what? Both teams top their respective leagues with 15 wins apiece. It doesn’t matter.
Well, in the land of sabermetrics, where the VORP-petals fall and the Win Share trees tower, it does matter. Yes, the wins are in the proverbial bank, but a team’s run differential can tell us a different story.
The Pythagorean expectation formula, invented by Bill James, and subsequently modified throughout the years, provides a ballpark figure of how many games a team should have won based on the number of runs scored and allowed. By applying this formula, a number cruncher can compare a club’s actual winning percentage to its theoretic Pythagorean winning percentage, which can then be used to evaluate a team’s “luckiness” or “clutchiness” (no, that isn’t an actual word but it fits).
So while Arizona sits at 15-6 with a Pythagorean record to match, the BoSox own an expected win-loss record barely over .500 at 12-11. Of course, small sample sizes obviously play a major factor this early in a season as a ten-run rout either way will skew the percentages.
But wait, there’s more!
You see, over the course of time, sabermetricians realized that the basic baseball Pythag. theorem didn’t properly account for the quality of a team’s bullpen, which, in turn, tends to have the greatest impact in one-run games. Thus, systematic statistical deviations remain present and, as a result, actual year-end winning percentage and expected year-end winning percentage, though fairly accurate, will rarely equate to a one-to-one ratio.
Now, too make a long story short … Too late! … the Red Sox non-theoretical formula to winning has been quite simple: keep the game close, hack into the opposing bullpen by working the starter’s pitch count, grab the lead, and shut the door with the one-two, left-right, finesse-power combo of Hideki Okajima and rock star Jonathan Papelbon. And so far, it’s a formula (5-0 in one-run games) that has produced nothing but wins.
The First Six Innings? Overrated
Although a trend not likely to last over the long haul, the Red Sox, over the past week and half, are proving that the first six innings aren’t all that important when it comes to scratching an etch in the win column.
Through Tuesday’s games, Boston has scored a baseball best 43 runs from the seventh inning on, batting a healthy .332 with a .398 on-base mark and .532 slugging percentage when only nine outs linger in the contest.
Like some hybrid cross between John Calipari’s “Refuse To Lose” motto and Black Sabbath’s “Never Say Die!” album title, the Sox have brewed a crazy concoction that openly mocks the idea of losing. In fact, Boston has now accumulated four wins after their Win Expectancy dropped below 13 percent—last year, their fourth such win didn’t come to pass until June 9.
But, in particular, five comeback wins within the last ten days stand out among the rest.
April 14, BOS @ CLE: Trailing 4-1 after six innings, the Red Sox chip away by scoring single runs in the seventh and eighth innings. In the ninth, Boston ties the game in a hurry with a lead off double from Julio Lugo, a sacrifice bunt from Coco Crisp, and a deep fly out off the bat of Dustin Pedroia. But the unrelenting Sox don’t stop there. Following a David Ortiz single, Manny Ramirez serves one of Joe Borowski’s meatballs to the hungry Cleveland fans located beyond the wall in left. Papelbon closes the door in the next half inning as the Sox steal a win.
April 15, BOS @ CLE: Down 2-1 in the seventh, Boston grabs the lead with a two-run seeing-eye single from rookie Jed Lowrie. But the Indians quickly knot the score up in the bottom of the inning. Still deadlocked at three as the game moves to the ninth, a pinch-hitting Jason Varitek smacks a solo shot just inches above the yellow in left-center. The Sox add an insurance run but one that goes unneeded as Okajima, subbing for an overworked Papelbon, sends the Tribe down in order.
April 19, BOS vs. TEX: Held in check all game by the Rangers’ Jason Jennings, the Red Sox lag behind by one as the eighth inning rolls in. A one-out ringing double by Pedroia sets up an Ortiz game-tying single. And before you can even say, “Joaquin Benoit,” an already scorching-hot Ramirez unloads a laser beam shot over everything in left, providing Boston with a two-run cushion and eventual win.
April 20, BOS vs. TEX: Once again struggling to score runs off a Texas starting pitcher—a rarity unlikely to be replicated any time soon—the Red Sox find themselves with a donut on the scoreboard and the Rangers up by five, seemingly, insuperable runs. But the Sox of Red battle back with two in the seventh, knocking out Kevin Millwood in the process. And then, in the eighth, the Boston batsmen erupt for four scores and seven baserunners (oh yeah, a Gettysburg Address reference), highlighted by a Lowrie run-scoring two-bagger, an Ortiz RBI single, a pinch-hit, game-tying Pedroia double, and a bases loaded walk drawn by Sean Casey—with most of the damage coming off the previously un-scored upon C.J. Wilson. A Papelbonian 1-2-3 half-inning later, and the Sox snatch another victory from the hands of defeat.
April 22, BOS vs. LAA: Losing 5-1 early in the contest, Boston plates one in the fourth and three in the fifth, capped by a Kevin Youkilis two-run blast, to tie the game. The bottom of the sixth sees the Sox capture the lead on a Jacoby Ellsbury home run, his second on the night; however, the Angels of the Western Hemisphere counter with their own long-ball to make it six-all. But like a heavyweight champ exchanging power blows, the Sox scrape across the winning run in the eighth on a beauty of a drag bunt by the lightening-fast Ellsbury and a ripped RBI double down the third base line by Pedroia. And, yet again, Papelbon seals the deal in the ninth, breezing through the Halos’ heart of the order.
Remember the formula? Keep the game relatively close, jack up the opposing starting pitcher’s pitch count, beat up the underbelly of the pen, take hold of the lead, and hand the ball off to the Okajima-Papelbon connection, who have combined for 19 and one-third innings of four-run ball (1.87 ERA), striking out 25 while only allowing 16 batters to reach base so far this season.
It’s not the most reliable plan—no good plan suggests that you should trail when heading into the middle innings (see Wednesday’s 6-4 loss to the Angels; these kind of posts always seem to be ill-timed, don’t they?)—but it does serve as a sign that no deficit is too large for a team with a deep, multi-dimensional offense and a lockdown backend of a bullpen.
The Kids Are All Right
I’d be remiss not to mention the absolutely blistering production from the young nucleus of Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Pedroia—three key catalysts to the Red Sox early season success and recent comeback triumphs, especially with Ortiz only now starting to heat up while, at the same time, an onslaught of nagging injuries coupled with the flu bug has turned the Red Sox clubhouse into a makeshift MASH unit.
First there’s the vertically challenged Pedroia, the league’s most offensively dynamic little man since the days (or day) of Eddie Gaedel. Leading the AL in batting average, hits, and doubles through Wednesday’s games, the Rookie of the Year award-winner has picked up where he left off in the World Series while also leaving last year’s April struggles (.544 OPS) in the dust.
The recently recalled Lowrie, a top five prospect in the Sox system, has functioned as a jack-of-all-trades, making starts at third and second base as well as at shortstop. But the switch-hitting infielder, filling double roles with Mike Lowell and super-sub Alex Cora on the disabled list, has also sparked a few late-inning rallies with some timely hits as noted above.
Then last on the list, but certainly first in a race between the three, sits the speed demon Ellsbury. Despite not having enough plate appearances to qualify as a full-time player, the hotshot center fielder, known for once outrunning a deer in his youth, tops the league in runs scored and has added eight stolen bases in as many attempts through Wednesday’s slate of games.
As Roger Daltrey once said, “The kids are alright.”
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April 24th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptYou see, over the course of time, sabermetricians realized that the basic baseball Pythag. theorem didn’t properly account for the quality of a team’s bullpen, which, in turn, tends to have the greatest impact in one-run games. … [...]
April 25th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
too bad they couldn’t do it games 2 and 3 :) I think the Angels-Red Sox rivalry may be the new East-West rivalry of the modern baseball era. You Boston fans may not see it that way, since you’ve typically pounded the Angels up until this last series, but as for what may develop out of it, we’ll have to see. Boston is really the only team Angels fans worry about seeing (since the Angels were the only team with a winning road record and Yankee stadium), and with good reason. Should be interesting what dynamics grow from this.