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Pedroia The Destroia Vs. The Sophomore SlumpJune 25th, 2008
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He stands about five-foot-nothing, armed with the biceps of a 12-year-old, looking more like one of the bat boys than a major leaguer. But that’s OK. Dustin Pedroia isn’t modeling in the latest billboard ad for Calvin Klein Underwear.
For what the diminutive second baseman lacks in the physique department, he makes up in his exceptional hand-eye coordination. And while short in stature, the pocket-sized Pedroia remains long on confidence, bordering on cocky—just ask his teammates.
“He’ll make an out against a guy throwing 98 (mph), and when he comes to the dugout, we’ll ask, ‘What’s he got?’” said outfielder Brandon Moss back in 2005 while playing with Pedroia at Double-A Portland. “Dustin will tell us, ‘He ain’t got &*@*!’”
Inculcated with a big ol’ case of the Short Man Syndrome after years of hearing the doubters and skeptics say that he couldn’t, Boston’s very own Napoleon has done nothing but hit since his collegiate days at Arizona State University to throughout his rising pro-career with the Sox following his second round selection in the 2004 amateur draft.
Always playing with a chip on his shoulder in combination with a lethal ability to square-up a baseball with great consistency despite a ferocious, Gary Sheffield-like corkscrew swing, Pedroia earned elite status among those at his position following last year’s rookie of the year campaign that saw him hit .317—the highest batting average in history by a rookie second baseman.
Year two, however, has unfolded a bit differently for Pedroia. To call it a sophomore slump would be unfair—Bob Hamelin he’s not—but the 24-year-old’s second full season has seen a few more dips at the plate, including a prolonged slump far worse than last season’s miserable April in which he batted .182 in 65 plate appearances before going on to mash his way to a 1.072 OPS in May, leaving his opening month struggles in the proverbial dust from there on out.
Initially off to a stellar start to the 2008 season as he toted a .364 average in late April, Pedroia found himself stumbling into June with an on-base percentage more in line with last year’s batting average. From April 23 to June 13—a span covering over 200 plate appearances—Pedroia rate stats registered in at a paltry .212/.260/.291 while his strikeout total doubled the amount of walks he drew at the dish.
The sharp divide in his walk-to-strikeout ratio during this stretch proved to be most peculiar for Pedroia, who, at every level, had not only walked more than he whiffed, but also racked up more extra-base hits than strikeouts in each of his four professional seasons.
Of course, like any good number-cruncher, those fretting over Pedroia’s stuck-in-neutral malaise first looked at specific numbers that would signal a change in approach—a theory first spurred on as a result of a quote during the spring from Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan in which he wanted the hard-swinging Pedroia to be more aggressive.
But, the assumption is difficult to substantiate with any degree of reliability. For one, Pedroia’s pitches per plate appearance have remained remarkably steady at 3.8 per PA. And secondly, and more convincingly, his comparative “plate discipline” from year one to year two, as measured by Baseball Info Solutions, has failed to reveal an outlier as well.
According to the data on Fan Graphs, which maintains every hitter’s swing tendencies on balls outside and inside the strike zone as well as contact percentage on those aforementioned swings, Pedroia’s “aggressiveness” has increased negligibly at less than 1 percent for his overall swing percentage while his contact percentage discloses no discernable disparity.
If all that sounds a bit confusing, don’t worry. The handy chart below, updated as of June 24, will help sort out the muddle.
Overall, it’s a neat little tool to use when discussing plate discipline, going beyond the actual end results and anecdotal evidence. But, in the case of Pedroia, the decrease in walk percentage (8.3 percent in ‘07 to 5.9 percent in ‘08) and slight increase in strikeout percentage (8.1 percent in ‘07 to 9.1 percent in ‘08) do not correlate with any change in his approach, at least according to the above data.
So then, what about Pedroia’s middling batting average that had dipped to the .260s prior to a most recent hot streak in which he has picked up 22 hits in his last 48 at-bats? Well, that’s just baseball. Sometimes a slump is just that: a slump.
With a roughly league average .296 batting average on balls in play heading into Wednesday’s game, Pedroia has actually increased both his line drive rate (up to 21 percent from 18.5 percent) and ground ball rate this season. While such an uptick would usually result in more hits, what it does indicate is that Pedroia’s .334 BABIP from a year ago was partly a product of some good fortune from the baseball deities and, this season, those fickle divine beings are equilibrating the balance scale.
Point is, more often than not, stats coupled with small sample sizes display far too much fluctuation to be anything more than a semi-useful but ultimately flawed methodology to measure mid-season player trends. In a way, it’s sort of like a scout grading a player strictly on his height, 40-time, hair follicles and nothing else.
What the past two weeks have shown us is that the “new” Pedroia is, in fact, the same as the “old” Pedroia. More walks than strikeouts, more extra-base hits, too. Those multiple hit games that were so rampant in April have returned as June nears its end. And you can be sure that each time Pedroia heads back to the dugout—hit or no hit—he’s telling his teammates the same thing: “That pitcher ain’t got &*@*!”
Schilling: Lost For The Season But Not Forgotten
When it’s all said and done, Curt Schilling will have missed half as many starts as he made with the Red Sox during his five-year stint with the club. But it sure doesn’t seem like it, for his long-lasting impact on the franchise easily outweighs his injury-plagued seasons in 2005 and now 2008 following season-ending shoulder surgery this past Monday.
The now 41-year-old Schilling didn’t single-handedly transform the Red Sox from perennial losers to model champs two-times over during the decade, but the burly right-hander with near Hall of Fame credentials and legendary post-season performances came to Boston with a single goal in mind and literally bled for it.
Following the surgery that officially put an end to any possibility of pitching later this season, Dr. Craig Morgan did have good news, stating that since there was no significant damage to the right rotator cuff, Schilling could participate in a throwing program in four months.
The positive post-op talk leaves a sliver of hope that Schilling, at age 42, could at least attempt a comeback next season with the Sox, but most likely elsewhere. However, as Schilling wrote on 38pitches.com over the weekend, he “won’t come back throwing 85 mph with so-so crap.” He blogged, “If there is not an option to come back and be good, I won’t.”
So, if this is it, Red Sox Nation™ has no complaints.
With time permitting, I’ll have more this weekend on the Big Schill and the Red Sox legacy he leaves behind.
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