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Red Sox Roadkill: Inefficient Offense Away From The Friendly Confines of Fenway (Part 2 of 3)

July 27th, 2008

Just as life tastes better with KFC—well, according to the the ad jingle, at least—the Red Sox offense undoubtedly performs better at Fenway Park.

Hitting .297 with a .376 on-base and .475 slugging percentage at Fenway as a team, the Boston lineup scores an average of 5.8 runs per home game.

But, then, take that same crew away from Fenway: the team average drops; the accumulative OBP dips; and a power sap follows suit. As a result, the offense—prior to the club’s three-game series against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field—has produced 4.3 runs per road game, ranking them towards the middle of the pack in the AL in terms of road run production.

Now, it’s no strange occurrence that an offense produces more at home than they do on the road. Various reasons, ranging from ballpark factors to simple creature comforts, play a role in the splits. Yet, despite the seemingly stark contrast between Boston’s home and road offensive splits, the Sox—with a .762 OPS away from Fenway—lead the AL in road average (.266), road on-base (.336), and road slugging (.425) through July 20.

This begs the question: based on the above, just how many runs should the Sox be averaging on the road?

It’s such a pity that there isn’t a way to calculate such things. Oh, wait. There is! Read more

Halfway Point Revisited: Making The Grade

July 20th, 2008

Report card

The mid-season report card, better known as the beat writer’s great crutch, remains one of the more pointless routines in baseball journalism. After all, a baboon could regurgiate what a player has already done and fling arbitrary grades around.

So, since we all know that assigning high and low marks to individual players is nothing but a sham, I decided to take a stab at it as well, though with, hopefully, some predictive acumen in certain cases. Read more

Julio Lugo: Another Sunk Cost At Short?

May 14th, 2008

Ever since the eleventh-hour deadline deal that shipped Nomar Garciaparra off to the Cubbies as part of a three-way trade machination and, along with it, sent a Red Sox fandom into knee-jerk hysteria—then eventual baseball ecstasy three months later—general manager Theo Epstein has aggressively engaged in a seasonal pursuit for Boston’s next long-term shortstop.

But for the past four winters—each filled and followed by one fruitless search after another—Epstein’s hunt has seemingly mirrored the life and times of Elmer Fudd. Far too elusive to nab, that wascawly shortstop has evaded the grasp of the Sox GM at every turn—only self-inflicted gunshot wounds in the form of failed signings left in all the aftermath.

So, to say the shortstop position under the Epstein-era has seen more ups, downs and (public relations) spin than a merry-go-round wouldn’t be much of an understatement. In fact, by now, some Red Sox supporters might prefer a daintily handcrafted carousel horse to the club’s incumbent shortstop, one Julio Lugo.

Julio Lugo high-fives his bat or something

Read more

April Farm Report: A Master and His Bard - Part 1

May 1st, 2008

There’s a reason why many Red Sox followers remained hesitant when it came to the discussed but never-to-be trade for ace lefty and change-up king Johan Santana this past off-season.

Just call it prospect envy.

With the success of second baseman Dustin Pedroia, last year’s American League Rookie of the Year, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, a key cog in Boston’s World Series sweep of the Rockies, and right-hander Clay Buchholz, owner of a no-hitter in his second major league start, the fans of the Olde Towne Team are starting to expect similar results from each farmhand that makes his way up to the big club.

Clay Buchholz delivers a pitch during his no-hitter last September

Add into the mix shortstop Jed Lowire, who has filled in admirably as a super-sub on the major league roster due to injuries in the Boston infield this season, and right-hander Justin Masterson’s impressive spot start against the Angels last week, and this phenomenon of lusting after the unknown—like the backup quarterback in football—only intensifies.

And fans aren’t alone when it comes to prospect envy.

Ultimately, the Red Sox front office, led by general manager Theo Epstein, felt the price for Santana—four top prospects … and a huge contract—was not one worth paying.

Read more

Sickly Sox Regress To The Mean

April 28th, 2008

Five days. That’s all it takes. From a six-game winning streak filled with memorable late-inning heroics to a five game nose-dive the Red Sox would like to soon forget as the team heads into its first off-day since April 7, a span covering 20 straight games played in between.

But with a run differential that didn’t match their spiffy 15-7 record heading into Wednesday’s contest against the Angels, the Sox were due for a little regression towards the mean—though, ideally, not in the span of 120 hours. Of course, a team-wide bout with the influenza epidemic of 2008 hasn’t helped matters.

Ravaged by a nefarious flu bug, the Sox were forced to dip into the depths of their system when ace Josh Beckett and the so-far-undefeated Daisuke Matsuzaka fell victim to the pervasive virus last week during a three game set with the Angels.

As a result of the unexpected scratches, Boston called up two starters from the minors—Triple-A Pawtucket right-hander David Pauley, a middling young arm who had previously made his debut in 2006, and fellow righty Justin Masterson, a top five prospect in the Sox system making the jump from Double-A Portland. In addition, Jon Lester took to the hill on three days rest in the middle game of the series.

Read more

Deficit, Smeficit: Sox Proving No Lead’s Too Large

April 24th, 2008

Just call them “The Comeback Kids.”

No, I’m not talking about John McCain and Hillary Clinton, though their individual runs for the presidency have also prevailed over seemingly insurmountable odds. But rather, I’m talking about the American League’s best team, record-wise and, perhaps, otherwise, through the first four weeks of the still very young season.

Or maybe “The Cardiac Kids” would suit them better. Not sure, but considering some of the key igniters behind the Red Sox recent barrage of late-inning magic, the noun ‘kids’ seems more than apropos.

Off to a start filled with more last-minute drama than an episode of Lost, the team from the Back Bay has quashed, in convincing fashion, any worries of a slow start due to the aftereffects of an opening-morning excursion through Japan and an April schedule chocked full of playoff contenders.

But despite the 15-8 record, you can hardly call the Red Sox play on the field dominant. More like opportunistic and absurdly resilient, bordering on miraculous.

Don’t get me wrong; it’s not to say they’ve been lucky—ever since going the way of Snake Plissken and escaping from Toronto after a weekend nightmare in early April, the Boston Nine-plus have been rolling through the competition … just not in a—let’s say—Arizona Diamondbacks-like manner.

Breaking Out The Calculators: Run Differential Meets Pythagoras

The D-Backs (through Wednesday) have scored 128 runs and yielded only 79 tallies to their opposition—good for a run differential of 49—whereas the Red Sox (through Wednesday) have plated an AL-leading 123 runs but allowed 112 runs to score—a run differential of just 11.

So, what? Both teams top their respective leagues with 15 wins apiece. It doesn’t matter.

Well, in the land of sabermetrics, where the VORP-petals fall and the Win Share trees tower, it does matter. Yes, the wins are in the proverbial bank, but a team’s run differential can tell us a different story.

Read more

Red Sox Win Series, Lose Lowell

April 11th, 2008

The Red Sox may have won the home opening series against the Tigers, but they did so at a cost.

That’s because before Boston doubled up Detroit in a 12-6 slugfest Thursday night, the team found out it would be minus the services of third baseman and five-hole hitter Mike Lowell until at least April 25 as a result of a sprained left thumb suffered on a diving stop in the top of the first inning of Wednesday’s contest.

With Lowell, last year’s World Series’ MVP, landing on the 15-day disabled list, the team purchased the contract of 23-year-old Jed Lowrie from Triple-A Pawtucket. The switch-hitting Lowrie, rated by Baseball America as the organization’s fifth best prospect, has so far been groomed as Boston’s shortstop of the future or even trade bait in the right deal. Yet he does have experience all over the infield from the minors.

Although off to a cold start with zero runs batted in over nine games, the loss of Lowell will present the Red Sox with their first real challenge on the young season while also testing the team’s depth as they head into a weekend series against the Yankees.

Mike Lowell with a quasi-tackle on the Yankees Robinson Cano during a 2007 game. Read more


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