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Red Sox Roadkill: Inefficient Offense Away From The Friendly Confines of Fenway (Part 2 of 3)

July 27th, 2008

Just as life tastes better with KFC—well, according to the the ad jingle, at least—the Red Sox offense undoubtedly performs better at Fenway Park.

Hitting .297 with a .376 on-base and .475 slugging percentage at Fenway as a team, the Boston lineup scores an average of 5.8 runs per home game.

But, then, take that same crew away from Fenway: the team average drops; the accumulative OBP dips; and a power sap follows suit. As a result, the offense—prior to the club’s three-game series against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field—has produced 4.3 runs per road game, ranking them towards the middle of the pack in the AL in terms of road run production.

Now, it’s no strange occurrence that an offense produces more at home than they do on the road. Various reasons, ranging from ballpark factors to simple creature comforts, play a role in the splits. Yet, despite the seemingly stark contrast between Boston’s home and road offensive splits, the Sox—with a .762 OPS away from Fenway—lead the AL in road average (.266), road on-base (.336), and road slugging (.425) through July 20.

This begs the question: based on the above, just how many runs should the Sox be averaging on the road?

It’s such a pity that there isn’t a way to calculate such things. Oh, wait. There is! Read more

Halfway Point Revisited: Making The Grade

July 20th, 2008

Report card

The mid-season report card, better known as the beat writer’s great crutch, remains one of the more pointless routines in baseball journalism. After all, a baboon could regurgiate what a player has already done and fling arbitrary grades around.

So, since we all know that assigning high and low marks to individual players is nothing but a sham, I decided to take a stab at it as well, though with, hopefully, some predictive acumen in certain cases. Read more

Sox Head West, Offense Goes South

May 30th, 2008

Superman has his Kryptonite. Spider-Man has his forever-conflicting sense of responsibility. And the oh-so-close-to-being-immortal Achilles had that pesky heel thing.

But the fatal weakness for the Red Sox thus far this season has been quite simple—with no intergalactic travel required. Because just outside the friendly nooks and crannies of Fenway Park, the mighty Boston lineup tends to morph from a run-producing powerhouse into the motley crew that made up the anemic offense of the painfully awful ‘62 Mets.

OK, a bit of an exaggeration, for sure. After all, the Sox, despite a recent run-scoring outage, still maintain the second best road OPS in the American League. But with Boston dropping 10 of their last 12 away from the Fens—and averaging only 3.5 runs in the process—the team needs to take the nearest exit ramp off this road to perdition.

Superman soars in front of a greenscreen

After the first six contests of a ten game trip—a West Coast swing through Oakland and Seattle before heading back east to square off against Baltimore this weekend—the Sox find themselves with only a single etch in the win column. Read more

Julio Lugo: Another Sunk Cost At Short?

May 14th, 2008

Ever since the eleventh-hour deadline deal that shipped Nomar Garciaparra off to the Cubbies as part of a three-way trade machination and, along with it, sent a Red Sox fandom into knee-jerk hysteria—then eventual baseball ecstasy three months later—general manager Theo Epstein has aggressively engaged in a seasonal pursuit for Boston’s next long-term shortstop.

But for the past four winters—each filled and followed by one fruitless search after another—Epstein’s hunt has seemingly mirrored the life and times of Elmer Fudd. Far too elusive to nab, that wascawly shortstop has evaded the grasp of the Sox GM at every turn—only self-inflicted gunshot wounds in the form of failed signings left in all the aftermath.

So, to say the shortstop position under the Epstein-era has seen more ups, downs and (public relations) spin than a merry-go-round wouldn’t be much of an understatement. In fact, by now, some Red Sox supporters might prefer a daintily handcrafted carousel horse to the club’s incumbent shortstop, one Julio Lugo.

Julio Lugo high-fives his bat or something

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First Time Since… When???

April 26th, 2008

Boston vs. Angels. Angels AT Boston. Angels at FENWAY. None of that sounds good, at least to anyone who is an Angels fan.

Historically, the Angels have more than SUCKED against Boston’s power-house of offense, the one-two Papi-Manny assault, and even with Drew, Lugo, and YOOOOOOOOOUK… but put it AT Fenway, and it’s twice the horrific scene of brutality.

The best instance? Oh, maybe the playoff sweep in 2007? Oh, maybe the same playoff sweep in 2004? It has been a common plague of the Angels organization for several several years – and the fear for this season was that if something drastic didn’t happen in the off-season, that it would continue… something of a plague maybe?

So it has been the Angels staff’s epic journey to find a way to get passed Boston’s hitter’s game. By acquiring Torii Hunter to fill a bit of the power-bat gap they’ve complained about for the past few years, they looked to match wits, so to speak. I think Garland may have been a bit of a risk, in terms of playing Boston, since Garland’s pitching style lends itself to being hit, which is something Boston does exceedingly well. At least, however, he is a sinkerball pitcher, and can get the balls to stay in the park for the most part. But let’s not forget that Fenway is very much a hitter’s park, with a barely over 300-feet away left field “monster.”

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Deficit, Smeficit: Sox Proving No Lead’s Too Large

April 24th, 2008

Just call them “The Comeback Kids.”

No, I’m not talking about John McCain and Hillary Clinton, though their individual runs for the presidency have also prevailed over seemingly insurmountable odds. But rather, I’m talking about the American League’s best team, record-wise and, perhaps, otherwise, through the first four weeks of the still very young season.

Or maybe “The Cardiac Kids” would suit them better. Not sure, but considering some of the key igniters behind the Red Sox recent barrage of late-inning magic, the noun ‘kids’ seems more than apropos.

Off to a start filled with more last-minute drama than an episode of Lost, the team from the Back Bay has quashed, in convincing fashion, any worries of a slow start due to the aftereffects of an opening-morning excursion through Japan and an April schedule chocked full of playoff contenders.

But despite the 15-8 record, you can hardly call the Red Sox play on the field dominant. More like opportunistic and absurdly resilient, bordering on miraculous.

Don’t get me wrong; it’s not to say they’ve been lucky—ever since going the way of Snake Plissken and escaping from Toronto after a weekend nightmare in early April, the Boston Nine-plus have been rolling through the competition … just not in a—let’s say—Arizona Diamondbacks-like manner.

Breaking Out The Calculators: Run Differential Meets Pythagoras

The D-Backs (through Wednesday) have scored 128 runs and yielded only 79 tallies to their opposition—good for a run differential of 49—whereas the Red Sox (through Wednesday) have plated an AL-leading 123 runs but allowed 112 runs to score—a run differential of just 11.

So, what? Both teams top their respective leagues with 15 wins apiece. It doesn’t matter.

Well, in the land of sabermetrics, where the VORP-petals fall and the Win Share trees tower, it does matter. Yes, the wins are in the proverbial bank, but a team’s run differential can tell us a different story.

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Red Sox Win Series, Lose Lowell

April 11th, 2008

The Red Sox may have won the home opening series against the Tigers, but they did so at a cost.

That’s because before Boston doubled up Detroit in a 12-6 slugfest Thursday night, the team found out it would be minus the services of third baseman and five-hole hitter Mike Lowell until at least April 25 as a result of a sprained left thumb suffered on a diving stop in the top of the first inning of Wednesday’s contest.

With Lowell, last year’s World Series’ MVP, landing on the 15-day disabled list, the team purchased the contract of 23-year-old Jed Lowrie from Triple-A Pawtucket. The switch-hitting Lowrie, rated by Baseball America as the organization’s fifth best prospect, has so far been groomed as Boston’s shortstop of the future or even trade bait in the right deal. Yet he does have experience all over the infield from the minors.

Although off to a cold start with zero runs batted in over nine games, the loss of Lowell will present the Red Sox with their first real challenge on the young season while also testing the team’s depth as they head into a weekend series against the Yankees.

Mike Lowell with a quasi-tackle on the Yankees Robinson Cano during a 2007 game. Read more

Red Sox, Daisuke Tame Tigers in Home Opener

April 10th, 2008

Amazing what an off day and the Fenway crowd can do. Not to mention some new jewelry.

After a lost weekend in Toronto that saw the Red Sox drop three straight to the Blue Jays in rather lethargic fashion (outscored 23-9 while committing six errors), the hometown nine from Boston, at long last, returned to the Fens for yet another opener—only this time, their own.

Yes, it took a while; 19-days and some 16,000 air miles spread across the Far East, West Coast, and the provinces of Central Canada to be exact. But with the tiring three-nation tour now behind them, the Red Sox undoubtedly enjoyed the ceremonious Back Bay homecoming.

Packed with stars and filled with pre-game festivities, the dual-purpose opener officially rang in the new baseball season for the Red Sox while also capping off the World Series run from a year ago with the raising of another championship flag and the handing out of diamond- and ruby-studded rings.

Yet it was another prized jewel on display April 8 that ended up stealing the show as Daisuke Matsuzaka delivered a shutout performance against the still winless Detroit Tigers in his 2008 Fenway debut, earning his second victory on the young season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka fires off the first pitch of the Fenway Park opener to Edgar Renteria.

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