Posts Tagged ‘Win-Loss Expectancy’
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Red Sox Roadkill: Inefficient Offense Away From The Friendly Confines of Fenway (Part 2 of 3)July 27th, 2008
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Just as life tastes better with KFC—well, according to the the ad jingle, at least—the Red Sox offense undoubtedly performs better at Fenway Park.
Hitting .297 with a .376 on-base and .475 slugging percentage at Fenway as a team, the Boston lineup scores an average of 5.8 runs per home game.
But, then, take that same crew away from Fenway: the team average drops; the accumulative OBP dips; and a power sap follows suit. As a result, the offense—prior to the club’s three-game series against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field—has produced 4.3 runs per road game, ranking them towards the middle of the pack in the AL in terms of road run production.
Now, it’s no strange occurrence that an offense produces more at home than they do on the road. Various reasons, ranging from ballpark factors to simple creature comforts, play a role in the splits. Yet, despite the seemingly stark contrast between Boston’s home and road offensive splits, the Sox—with a .762 OPS away from Fenway—lead the AL in road average (.266), road on-base (.336), and road slugging (.425) through July 20.
This begs the question: based on the above, just how many runs should the Sox be averaging on the road?
It’s such a pity that there isn’t a way to calculate such things. Oh, wait. There is! Read more
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Red Sox Roadkill: Boston Flattened Away From Fenway … Again and Again (Part 1 of 3)July 23rd, 2008
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Inherent in the game of baseball are streaks of both good and bad luck. The everyday aspect of the sport often blinds us from these small sample size flukes that ebb and flow throughout the course of a long, marathon season.
And even though, at the zenith or nadir of these streaks, it doesn’t seem like anything will ever change, a trend in baseball can take a sharp turn in the opposite direction after just one at-bat, one start, or one game.
As such, also inherent in the game, due to these streaks of fortune, is irrationality.
A week or two of poor plate appearances from an overmatched rookie will leave us speculating on whether he’s ready for the major leagues. A series of grotesque pitching lines from a past-his-prime starter will cause us to look for greener pastures down on the farm. That is, until, said young, stud hitter or wily, veteran pitcher finds a groove, leaving our week-ago doubts long forgotten in the dust of today’s success.
You know, sort of like Alan Greenspan’s forewarning of irrational exuberance, only on a baseball scale instead of an economical one.
The same, of course, applies to teams. There are those seemingly unstoppable winning streaks where everything goes right. And then, conversely, there are those dreaded spate of L’s bunched closely together across the schedule—games in which everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong.
But, as the saying goes, things are never as good or bad as they seem. And in baseball, a team’s record—despite all the highest of highs and lowest of lows—more often than not ends up where it should based on the talent level of an organization and the year-end total performance of that talent. Or, in simpler phrasing, how many runs a team scores and allows over the course of a season.
There are, as always, exceptions. After all, games are played in ballparks, not in computer simulations. Sometimes the end results simply don’t match all the components. And sometimes that goes well beyond good and bad luck. Often, in these cases, it may just come down to poor roster construction—or, rather, a team with very strong strengths offset by very weak weaknesses.
With this in mind, meet the 2008 Boston Red Sox—a very talented club that plays nearly unbeatable baseball at home, yet a bipolar bunch on the road that usually finds a way to lose despite component numbers suggesting better outcomes.
Following yet another road sweep—their sixth on the season in totality—at the hands of baseball’s best in the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Red Sox own the worst road record among American League playoff hopefuls at 21-32—a winning percentage of .396 away from Fenway, an inexplicable mark placing the team closer to the Seattle Mariners’ level of (in)competence on the road.
Of course, it’s been a strange baseball year overall. Runs are down, the AL is out-pitching the pitcher-friendly NL, and the Tampa Bay Rays are still in first place as the baseball season inches its way towards August.
The oddity that is the ’08 season continues when looking at home and road records across the board. No team in the AL, outside of the Angels, is excelling on the road—in fact, the Halos possess the only above-.500 road record in the AL as of July 21.
But, in Red Sox land, that’s not an excuse nor should it be. After finishing as the AL’s best team on the road a season ago, the Sox, given their talent level, shouldn’t be mirroring the Mariners’ road winning percentage.
The question, then, is why? Although a simple query, the answer appears to be far more complex and multifarious.
However, the CliffsNotes version breaks it down into three distinct problem areas: a difficult road schedule, inefficiency on offense, and a bullpen bursting with arsonists.
O’Fer Southern California, Canada, and Florida
As mentioned, if the majority of the AL is struggling on the road, it goes without saying that most of the contenders are playing exceptional baseball at home. In turn, the Sox have played most of those contenders on the road.
If we separate the Sox road opposition thus far into two groups—above and below .500 teams—here’s how things shape up:
Against above .500 teams away from the friendly confines of Fenway Park, the Sox sit at 9-20—a lackluster standing that includes two winless trips through Tampa Bay and the aforementioned Mickey Mouse weekend in SoCal to kick off the second-half of the season.
Versus below or at .500 teams on the road, Boston fares a bit better with a 12-12 record—a tally worsened, and somewhat deceiving, due to an early April sweep by the Toronto Blue Jays, which came on the heels of the opening-season jaunt through Japan.
Now, this isn’t groundbreaking news. A good team will outplay the bad ones more often than the equally talented clubs. Then again, even Boston’s end results against the lesser road teams haven’t been all that inspiring, either.
Nonetheless, a possible silver lining may exist in the form of weaker road opponents the rest of the way. With 28 away games left—equating to nine series in all—the Sox will face off against only three teams with records significantly above .500 (Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, and the Rays).
What then remains on the away schedule includes a single tilt against the Texas Rangers and a pile of sub-.500 teams in the Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, and the heavily picked upon Mariners.
As a result of, literally, an easier road ahead, ground can be made up away from home. But getting to 40 road wins will require a 19-9 run, which, at this point, seems like an unattainable goal for the Sox unless two specific road trends—offense efficiency and late-inning lead protection—take that sharp turn in the opposite direction.
In part two of this three-part breakdown of Boston’s wayward ways on the road, a deeper look at an otherwise productive offense reveals its warts when hitting away from Fenway.